Could Climate Change Take Coffee and Chocolate Off Our Tables?

The impacts of climate change are increasingly visible in our food systems: production is faltering, and the costs of staples like coffee and chocolate are rising.

The effects of climate change are already evident on our tables and in the lives of millions of people who rely on the production of essential foods. However, statistics only tell part of the story. Behind every sip of coffee or bite of chocolate lies a story of entire communities at risk. Shifting weather patterns are disrupting food production, economies, and lives—particularly in the world's most vulnerable regions.

What will you learn in this article?

How does climate change affect the production of certain foods?

Picture the coffee plantations of Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, or Indonesia. For generations, these regions have thrived under climates with moderate temperatures and reliable rainfall. Today, these conditions are no longer guaranteed. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have created an uncertain future for coffee growers. By 2050, as much as half the land suitable for coffee cultivation could disappear, according to Spanish newspaper El País. What does that mean? Not just fewer cups of coffee, but millions of farmers—mostly in developing countries—facing the loss of their livelihoods.

Cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, faces similar threats. In Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, which together produce 54% of the world's cocoa, shifting rainy seasons have led to smaller, less reliable harvests. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) predicts a global shortfall of 462,000 tons for the 2023/24 season. These struggles are felt most deeply by farmers, many of whom rely solely on cocoa to support their families.

The economic toll of unpredictable weather

Climate change comes with a price, and it’s not just about what consumers pay. Crops endure droughts, heatwaves, and irregular rainfall, leading to price surges. In Brazil, the arabica coffee variety—one of the world’s favorites—saw a 43% price increase after the worst drought in seven decades. In Vietnam, low rainfall has shrunk the coffee harvest to its lowest level in 13 years. This impacts everyone, from consumers to smallholder farmers who struggle to adapt.

For chocolate producers, the outlook is even bleaker. Cocoa prices have surged over 250% in the last year, now exceeding $11,000 per ton. The ripple effect is severe: deprived farmers often must choose between consuming their own crops or exporting them to survive economically, leaving local communities with limited access to even basic foods.

The human impact behind every bite

Beyond taste and price, coffee, chocolate, and even cheese are economic lifelines for many communities. In Ethiopia, coffee contributes 60% of export earnings and supports 15 million people. In Ghana, cocoa accounts for 30% of export income, underpinning the livelihoods of rural populations already living on the edge.

Unfortunately, the poorest countries often bear the worst consequences. They are the least equipped to adapt to these changes and face the most severe impacts on their economies. They emit only a fraction of global greenhouse gases but bear the brunt of its devastating effects.

Finding solutions through collective action

Faced with the challenges posed by climate change, communities that rely on food production have begun organizing to adapt and mitigate its effects.

Collective action by Colombian coffee farmers

In Latin America, Colombian coffee growers have set a notable example of collective action by forming associations that enable them to share knowledge, enhance product quality, and access markets offering fair prices. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) plays a pivotal role in this effort. Its initiatives include developing knowledge and sustainable technologies that help producers remain competitive while reducing their environmental impact. Among its key achievements are the adoption of agricultural practices that conserve natural resources, ensuring the long-term sustainability of coffee crops.

Additionally, the FNC drives the comprehensive development of coffee-growing communities by managing and implementing projects in areas such as road infrastructure, housing, basic sanitation, energy, connectivity, and water treatment. These initiatives not only strengthen coffee growers' capabilities but also enhance the quality of life for them and their families.

Côte d'Ivoire's reforestation efforts to safeguard cocoa crops

Since the last century, Côte d'Ivoire has experienced rapid forest degradation due to logging, mining, urbanization, and extensive slash-and-burn agriculture. Since gaining independence in 1961, the country has lost 92% of its primary forests, resulting in significant losses of plant and animal biodiversity and contributing to regional and global climate change.

The cocoa sector, in particular, has been severely impacted by worsening hydro-climatic conditions. The expansion of monoculture farming at the expense of forests has led to depleted soils and a structural decline in yields, exacerbated by poor agricultural practices.

In response, a public-private partnership project is working to reverse this trend, aiming to restore 20% of the country's forest cover by 2030. A central aspect of the initiative is raising awareness among villagers, cocoa farmers, and local cocoa cooperative managers. Farmers and their families are being trained in agroforestry techniques, tree maintenance, and the importance of preserving surrounding forest ecosystems.

Climate change profoundly impacts our food supply, and its effects extend far beyond supermarket prices. It compels us to act not only to protect our plates but also to support those who depend on these crops for their livelihoods. To safeguard the coffee that energizes us, the chocolate that delights us, and the cheese we share, collective action is essential. Embracing sustainable solutions and supporting affected communities are key to ensuring climate change does not erase the flavors—and the human stories—we hold dear. The time to act is now.

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